Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling: A Long-Run Structural
Approach
This book provides a comprehensive description of the state-of-the-art in
modelling global and national economies.
It introduces the long-run structural approach to modelling that can be readily
adopted for use in understanding how economies work, and in generating forecasts for
decision- and policy-makers.
The book contains a thorough description of recent developments in
macroeconomics and econometrics, which should be of interest to advanced students and
researchers, but is also written to be accessible and helpful to practitioners in
government and the private sector.
The long-run structural approach is illustrated with various global and
national examples, including a step-by-step description of the development and use of a
model of the UK economy. Throughout, the book emphasises the use of macroeconometric
modelling in the real world and is written in a way that ensures the techniques
illustrated can be replicated or applied in new contexts. The transparency and pragmatism
of the modelling approach used within this book will be attractive to practitioners who
need manageable and interpretable models to answer specific questions.
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
2. Macroeconometric Modelling: Alternative Approaches
3. National and Global Structural Macroeconometric Modelling
4. An Economic Theory of the Long Run
5. An Economic Theory of the Short Run
6. Econometric Methods: A Review
7. Probability Forecasting: Concepts and Analysis
8. The UK Macroeconomy
9. A Long-Run Structural Model of the UK
10. Impulse Response and Trend/ Cycle Properties of the UK Model
11. Probability Event Forecasting with the UK Model
12. Global Modelling and Other Applications
13. Concluding Remarks
Appendix A: Derivation of the Interest Rate Rule
Appendix B: Invariance Properties of the Impulse Responses with respect to
Monetary Policy Shocks
Appendix C: Data for the UK Model
Appendix D: Gauss Programs and Result Files
400 pages, Paperback