20/20 Foresight: Crafting
Strategy in an Uncertain World
The book is built around a
simple but powerful insight: The key to making better strategic choices in turbulent
markets lies in understanding the level of uncertainty faced in a given situation. The
author argues that most executives suffer from an all-or-nothing view of strategy in which
future events are either certain or uncertain. Instead, 20/20 Foresight comes from
learning to separate what can be known from what can't and then using that residual
uncertainty to tailor every aspect of the decision-making process. Based on a large-scale
review of the strategy problems faced by leading companies, Courtney provides a framework
for diagnosing which of the four levels of uncertainty a specific business decision
corresponds to. Then, he shows how this level of uncertainty defines the tools, frameworks
and strategic planning processes the decision-maker should use when crafting answers to
three key strategic questions:
1) Should one attempt to
shape or adapt to uncertainty?
2) Make strategic commitments
now or later?
3) Follow a focused or
diversified strategy? Applicable to businesses in every industry, this essential guide
presents an integrated approach to building and sustaining winning strategies in a
changing world.
206 pages