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UNDERSTANDING ECONOMIC FORECASTS
HENDRY D., ERICSSON N. wydawnictwo: MIT PRESS , rok wydania 2001, wydanie I cena netto: 120.00 Twoja cena 114,00 zł + 5% vat - dodaj do koszyka Understanding Economic
Forecasts
Historically, the theory of
forecasting that underpinned actual practice in economics has been based on two key
assumptions that the model was a good representation of the economy and that the structure
of the economy would remain relatively unchanged. In reality, forecast models are
mis-specified, the economy is subject to unanticipated shifts, and the failure to make
accurate predictions is relatively common.
In the last decade, economists have developed new theories of economic forecasting and
additional methods of forecast evaluation that make less stringent assumptions. These
theories and methods acknowledge that the economy is dynamic and prone to sudden shifts.
They also recognize that forecasting models, however good, are greatly simplified
representations that will be incorrect in some respects. One advantage of these newer
approaches is that we can now account for the different results of competing forecasts.
In this book academic specialists, practitioners, and a financial journalist explain these
new developments in economic forecasting. The authors discuss how forecasting is
conducted, evaluated, reported, and applied by academic, private, and governmental bodies,
as well as how forecasting might be taught and what costs are induced by forecast errors.
They also describe how econometric models for forecasting are constructed, how properties
of forecasting methods can be analyzed, and what the future of economic forecasting may
bring.
206 pages
Po otrzymaniu zamówienia poinformujemy,
czy wybrany tytuł polskojęzyczny lub
anglojęzyczny jest aktualnie na półce księgarni.
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