FUTURE OF THE EMU TALANI L.S. ED. Księgarnia

As European integration continues, the future of EMU becomes ever more important. Can EMU help create an integrated European community, or will it prove a hindrance to the EU project? This book brings together the experts in the area to provide an interdisciplinary perspective on the issues expected to face EMU over the next few decades.

LEILA SIMONA TALANI is a Lecturer in International and European Politics and Political Economy at the University of Bath, UK as well as a Research Associate at the London School of Economics. Her thesis was published as Betting For and Against EMU. She is also the author of European Political Economy: Political Science Perspectives, Between Growth and Stability: The Demise and Reform of the Stability and Growth Pact, Back to Maastricht, EU and the Balkans: Policy of Integration and Disintegration and From Egypt to Europe.

Table of Contents

List of Figures x

List of Tables xii

List of Contributors xiii

Preface xiv

Introduction Leila Simona Talani 1

1 Some Thoughts on Monetary and Political Union Paul De Grauwe 9

1 Introduction 9

2 The many dimensions of a political union 10

3 The theory of optimum currency areas and political union 11

4 How does political integration affect the optimality of a monetary union? 13

5 Asymmetric shocks and lack of political union 15

6 Criticism of the traditional OCA theory 18

7 Comparing the two views 19

8 A preliminary evaluation 21

9 The institutional weakness of the present euro-zone governance 22

10 Conclusion: the need for further political integration 24

2 European Fiscal Policy Co-ordination and the Persistent Myth of Stabilization Erik Jones 29

1 Introduction 29

2 Stabilization and adjustment 30

3 Fiscal stabilization 42

4 International fiscal stabilization 47

5 Where do we go from here? 49

3 The Role of Preferences and the Sustainability of EMU Francisco Torres 54

1 Introduction 54

2 Two divergent views on the means to achieve monetary integration in Europe 55

3 Converging preferences on inflation and the role of monetary policy 57

4 The first test to the commitment to exchange rate and price stability 60

5 A framework of analysis for the sustainability of EMU 62

6 Endogenous preferences 66

7 Conclusion 69

4 Globalization vs. Europeanization: Assessing the Impact of EMU on Business Cycle Affiliation Michael Artis 75

1 Introduction 75

2 Is there a European business cycle? 76

3 Measuring business cycle affiliations 77

4 Clustering 78

5 Globalization vs. Europeanization? 82

6 Conclusion 86

5 EMU and theEuro-Mediterranean Dialogue: Trade Interdependence between Mediterranean and Euro-area Countries Giorgio Fazio 89

1 Introduction 89

2 Currency unions and trade integration south of the Mediterranean 90

3 The Barcelona Conference and the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership 92

4 A simple empirical evaluation 94

5 Data 97

6 Results 97

7 Conclusion 104

Data Appendix 105

6 In and Out of Monetary Unions: Lessons From, and Risks For the EMU. An Alternative Approach to Monetary Unions Antimo Verde 110

1 Introduction 110

2 The evolution of the OCA theory 112

3 A new conceptual scheme: the basic steps 116

4 The model 123

5 The model simulations: the two-speed Europe 134

6 Concluding remarks: the future of EMU and the OCA theory 139

7 EMU and the Quest for Competitiveness Leila Simona Talani 144

1 Introduction 144

2 The quest for competitiveness in theory 145

3 Conclusion: the future of EMU. Structural reforms and the crisis of the SGP 156

8 The Lisbon Strategy, Macroeconomic Stability and the Dilemma of Governance with Governments (Or Why Europe Is Not Becoming the World's Most Dynamic Economy) Stefan Collignon 161

1 Introduction 161

2 Where the Lisbon Strategy is failing 162

3 The flawed macroeconomic and institutional framework 175

4 Conclusion 188

9 Conclusion: the Future of EMU Leila Simona Talani 194

Index 198

272 pages, hardcover

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