This major new text by two leading authorities in the field provides a
state-of-the-art assessment of what we know about voting behavior and the character,
consequences and significance of elections in democratic states.
Uniquely broad-ranging in scope, it shows how patterns of electoral behavior have
evolved over time and also assesses the varying extents to which voters in different
countries are able to affect the direction of government policies in practice.
Table of Contents
List of Figures, Tables and Boxes viii
Preface and Acknowledgements xi
1 Why Elections? 1
Political parties 1
Functions of elections 4
The turnout paradox 6
Limitations of elections 7
Recurring themes 10
Voters, electorates, parties and party systems 12
The axis of political competition and the median voter 13
Representation 14
Electoral change 15
Topics 18
Countries 21
Institutional arrangements 21
Voters and the puzzle of the ignorant electorate 24
Plan of the book 25
2 Studying Elections, Parties and Voters 27
The political context: party systems 27
The Institutional context 29
Problems of parliamentary government 34
Problems of presidential systems 38
Government formation 39
How elections condition coalition bargaining 41
Institutional influences on the structure of political life 44
Habits and routines 46
Socialization, immunization and party identification 49
Preferences and choice 53
Institutional change 56
3 Electoral Institutions 58
Free and fair elections 58
votes and outcomes 59
Electoral rules 63
Trade-offs designing an electoral system 69
Electoral reform 71
Rules of the game for government formation 74
The role of the voters 78
The majoritarian and proportional visions 81
Dispersed versus concentrated power 83
Presidents and monarchs in parliamentary systems 84
4 Voters and Parties 87
Party immunization and generational differences 89
Group loyalties 92
The decline of cleavage politics 95
The rise of issue voting 98
Long-term changes in electoral competition 101
Strategic considerations 103
The role of the Prime Minister in parliamentary regimes 108
Tactical voting109
Candidate evaluations 113
Implications 114
5 Outcomes of Elections 118
Consequences of electoral shifts 119
Incumbency and terms limits 121
Accountability 123
Fairness in election outcomes 125
Trade-offs between proportional and majoritarian systems 127
Bias in election outcomes 129
Turnout and bias 130
Protest voting 131
The structuring effects of strategic considerations 136
Split-ticket voting, 'balance' and mid-term loss 138
Consequences of party positions 140
Leadership 143
Learning from elections 144
6 The Role of Public Opinion 146
Ways of studying public pinion 146
Why do people hold the opinions that they do? 147
The puzzle of the ignorant electorate 154
From issues to issue spaces 157
The issue space and proximity (smallest distance) theory 161
Party competence and issue ownership 166
The directional theory of party support 168
The responsiveness of public opinion 170
The swing of the pendulum 174
A sophisticated electorate? 177
7 Voter Orientations 179
The decline of partnership 179
Generational replacement and electoral change 182
Political change and political realignments 183
The hands of the past 187
The dynamics of generational replacement 189
Events and economic news 194
Studying party preferences 194
What accounts for preferences? 199
Mandates versus accountability (prospective versus retrospective voting) 207
Effects on preferences in newly established and consolidating democracies 208
8 Assessing Electoral Democracy 213
Representing citizens'; preferences 213
Do elections matter? 220
What we have learned 222
The quality of electoral processes 223
Evaluating the institutional arrangements for electoral democracy 228
What role for electoral democracy? 232
Possibilities for reform 234
A work in progress 239
Appendix: Use of Statistical Analysis 240
Notes 247
Guide to Further Reading 252
Bibliography 265
Author Index 292
Subject Index 298
256 pages, Paperback