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WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2006 +PDF 1 USER


IEA

wydawnictwo: IEA , rok wydania 2006, wydanie I

cena netto: 680.00 Twoja cena  646,00 zł + 5% vat - dodaj do koszyka

Two visions of the energy future:
- under-invested, vulnerable and dirty, or
- clean, clever and competitive.
Both are explored in this new edition of the authoritative World Energy Outlook.

In it, the International Energy Agency responds to the remit of the G8 world leaders by mapping a new energy future, contrasting it with where we are now headed. WEO 2006 shows how to change course. It counts the costs and benefits - and the benefits win.

World Energy Outlook 2006 also answers these questions:
- is the economic reaction to high energy prices merely delayed?
- is oil and gas investment on track?
- are the conditions shaping up for a nuclear energy revival?
- can biofuels erode the oil monopoly in road transport?
- can 2.5 billion people in developing countries switch to modern energy for cooking?
- is Brazil learning new lessons or teaching the world?

With extensive statistics, detailed projections, analysis and advice, WEO 2006 equips policy makers and the public to re-make the energy future.


Table of Contents

Foreword

Acknowledgements

List of Figures

List of Tables

List of Boxes

Summary and Conclusions

Introduction

Part A: The Reference Scenario

Key Assumptions

Highlights

Government Policies and Measures

Population

Macroeconomic Factors

Energy Prices 59

Technological Developments 63

Global Energy Trends 65

Highlights 65

Demand 66

Primary Energy Mix 66

Regional Trends 68

Sectoral Trends 70

Energy Production and Trade 71

Resources and Production Prospects 71

Inter-Regional Trade 73

Investment in Energy Infrastructure 75

Energy-Related CO2 Emissions 78

Oil Market Outlook 85

Highlights 85

Demand 86

Supply 88

Resources and Reserves 88

Production 91

Trade 100

Investment 102

Implications of Deferred Upstream Investment 107

Gas Market Outlook 111

Highlights 111

Demand 112

Supply 114

Resources and Reserves 114

Production 115

Inter-Regional Trade 117

Investment 121

Coal Market Outlook 125

Highlights 125

Demand 126

Reserves and Production 127

Inter-Regional Trade 131

Coal Supply Costs and Investment 133

Power Sector Outlook 137

Highlights 137

Electricity Demand Outlook 138

Power Generation Outlook 139

Energy-Related CO2 Emissions from Power Generation 144

The Economics of New Power Plants 145

Capacity Requirements and Investment Outlook 147

Power Generation Investment Trends in the OECD 150

Investment Trends in Developing Countries 153

Part B: The Alternative Policy Scenario 159

Mapping a New Energy Future 161

Highlights 161

Background 162

Why an Alternative Policy Scenario? 162

Methodology 164

Policy Assumptions 165

Energy Prices and Macroeconomic Assumptions 170

Technological Developments 170

Global Energy Trends 173

Primary and Final Energy Mix 173

Energy Intensity 177

Investment and Fuel Expenditures 178

Oil Markets 178

Demand 178

Supply 179

Inter-Regional Trade 181

Gas Markets 182

Demand 182

Production and Trade 183

Coal Markets 184

Demand 184

Production and Trade 186

Energy Security in Importing Countries 186

Energy-Related CO2 Emissions 188

Assessing the Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Policies 193

Highlights 193

Investment in Energy-Supply Infrastructure

and End-Use Equipment 194

Overview 194

Investment along the Electricity Chain 196

Demand-Side Investment 198

Supply-Side Investment 202

Implications for Energy Import Bills and Export Revenues 203

Implications for Consumers 205

Barriers to Investment in End-Use Energy Efficiency 210

Deepening the Analysis: Results by Sector 213

Highlights 213

Power Generation 214

Summary of Results 214

Electricity Mix 216

Policy Assumptions and Effects 221

Transport 222

Summary of Results 222

Road Transport 224

Policy Assumptions and Effects 224

Aviation 231

Industry 234

Summary of Results 234

Policy Assumptions and Effects 237

Residential and Services Sectors 241

Summary of Results 241

Policy Overview 246

Getting to and Going Beyond the Alternative Policy Scenario 249

Highlights 249

Making the Alternative Policy Scenario a Reality 250

Identifying Policy Priorities 250

Hurdles to Policy Adoption and Implementation 253

Going Beyond the Alternative Policy Scenario 256

Achieving the BAPS Goal 256

Implications for Energy Security 262

Beyond 2030: the Need for a Technology Shift 262

Part C: Focus on Key Topics 267

The Impact of Higher Energy Prices 269

Highlights 269

Introduction 270

Energy Price Trends and Relationships 270

International Prices 270

Final Prices to End Users 275

Quantifying Energy Subsidies 277

Impact of Higher Energy Prices on Demand 282

Energy Demand Trends since Prices Started Rising 282

Responsiveness of Energy Demand to Price Changes 283

Explaining Recent Trends in Energy Demand 289

Price Sensitivity Analysis 295

Macroeconomic Impact of Higher Energy Prices 297

How Higher Energy Prices Affect the Macroeconomy 297

Quantifying the Recent Shift in the Terms of Trade 299

Simulating the Macroeconomic Effects of Higher Energy Prices 301

Explaining Macroeconomic Resilience to Higher Energy Prices 306

Energy Policy Implications 313

Current Trends in Oil and Gas Investment 315

Highlights 315

Overview 316

Exploration and Development 321

Investment Trends 321

Impact of Cost Inflation on Upstream Investment 327

Implications for Oil and Gas Production Capacity 331

Oil Refining 335

Liquefied Natural Gas Facilities 336

Gas-to-Liquids Plants 340

Oil Sands and Extra-Heavy Oil 341

Investment beyond the Current Decade 341

Prospects for Nuclear Power 343

Highlights 343

Current Status of Nuclear Power 344

Renewed Interest in Nuclear Power 344

Nuclear Power Today 346

Historical Development 348

Policy Overview 351

Nuclear Power Generation 351

Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management 356

Proliferation and International Conventions 357

Outlook for Nuclear Power 360

Reference Scenario 361

Alternative Policy Scenario 361

Nuclear Power Economics in Competitive Markets 364

Generating Costs under Different Discount Rate Assumptions 364

Sensitivity Analysis of Nuclear Power Generating Costs 368

Other Factors Influencing the Generating Cost of Nuclear

Power 371

Financing Nuclear Power Plants 374

Nuclear Fuel Outlook 376

Demand for Uranium 376

Uranium Resources 377

Uranium Production 380

Uranium Prices and Investment in Exploration

and Production 381

Policy Issues 382

The Outlook for Biofuels 385

Highlights 385

Current Status of Biofuels Production and Use 386

Market Overview 386

Ethanol 388

Biodiesel 389

The Environmental Impact of Biofuels 391

Prospects for Biofuels Production and Use 394

Summary of Projections to 2030 394

Regional Trends 400

Key Drivers and Uncertainties 405

Technology and Production Costs 405

Biomass and Land Needs for Biofuels Production 412

International Trade in Biofuels 416

Energy for Cooking in Developing Countries 419

Highlights 419

Household Energy Use in Developing Countries 420

Harmful Effects of Current Cooking Fuels and Technologies 424

Health 424

Environment 427

The Burden of Fuel Collection 428

Outlook for Household Biomass Use in Developing Countries 431

Improving the Way Biomass is Used 433

Modern Cooking Fuels and Stoves 433

Quantifying the Potential Impact of Modern Cooking Fuels and Stoves 435

Policy Implications 440

Focus on Brazil 447

Highlights 447

Overview 448

The Political and Economic Outlook 449

The Political Scene 449

The National Economy 450

Recent Trends and Developments in the Energy Sector 452

Outlook for Energy Demand 454

Reference Scenario 455

Alternative Policy Scenario 462

Outlook for Supply 464

Oil 464

Natural Gas 471

Coal 474

Biomass 474

Power and Heat 479

Environmental Issues 484

Investment 486

ANNEXES 489

Annex A Tables for Reference and Alternative Policy

Scenario Projections 491

Annex B Electricity Access 565

Annex C Abbreviations and Definitions 573

Annex D Acronyms 581

Annex E References 585

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