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WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2006 +PDF 1 USERIEAwydawnictwo: IEA , rok wydania 2006, wydanie Icena netto: Two visions of the energy future: Table of Contents Foreword Acknowledgements List of Figures List of Tables List of Boxes Summary and Conclusions Introduction Part A: The Reference Scenario Key Assumptions Highlights Government Policies and Measures Population Macroeconomic Factors Energy Prices 59 Technological Developments 63 Global Energy Trends 65 Highlights 65 Demand 66 Primary Energy Mix 66 Regional Trends 68 Sectoral Trends 70 Energy Production and Trade 71 Resources and Production Prospects 71 Inter-Regional Trade 73 Investment in Energy Infrastructure 75 Energy-Related CO2 Emissions 78 Oil Market Outlook 85 Highlights 85 Demand 86 Supply 88 Resources and Reserves 88 Production 91 Trade 100 Investment 102 Implications of Deferred Upstream Investment 107 Gas Market Outlook 111 Highlights 111 Demand 112 Supply 114 Resources and Reserves 114 Production 115 Inter-Regional Trade 117 Investment 121 Coal Market Outlook 125 Highlights 125 Demand 126 Reserves and Production 127 Inter-Regional Trade 131 Coal Supply Costs and Investment 133 Power Sector Outlook 137 Highlights 137 Electricity Demand Outlook 138 Power Generation Outlook 139 Energy-Related CO2 Emissions from Power Generation 144 The Economics of New Power Plants 145 Capacity Requirements and Investment Outlook 147 Power Generation Investment Trends in the OECD 150 Investment Trends in Developing Countries 153 Part B: The Alternative Policy Scenario 159 Mapping a New Energy Future 161 Highlights 161 Background 162 Why an Alternative Policy Scenario? 162 Methodology 164 Policy Assumptions 165 Energy Prices and Macroeconomic Assumptions 170 Technological Developments 170 Global Energy Trends 173 Primary and Final Energy Mix 173 Energy Intensity 177 Investment and Fuel Expenditures 178 Oil Markets 178 Demand 178 Supply 179 Inter-Regional Trade 181 Gas Markets 182 Demand 182 Production and Trade 183 Coal Markets 184 Demand 184 Production and Trade 186 Energy Security in Importing Countries 186 Energy-Related CO2 Emissions 188 Assessing the Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Policies 193 Highlights 193 Investment in Energy-Supply Infrastructure and End-Use Equipment 194 Overview 194 Investment along the Electricity Chain 196 Demand-Side Investment 198 Supply-Side Investment 202 Implications for Energy Import Bills and Export Revenues 203 Implications for Consumers 205 Barriers to Investment in End-Use Energy Efficiency 210 Deepening the Analysis: Results by Sector 213 Highlights 213 Power Generation 214 Summary of Results 214 Electricity Mix 216 Policy Assumptions and Effects 221 Transport 222 Summary of Results 222 Road Transport 224 Policy Assumptions and Effects 224 Aviation 231 Industry 234 Summary of Results 234 Policy Assumptions and Effects 237 Residential and Services Sectors 241 Summary of Results 241 Policy Overview 246 Getting to and Going Beyond the Alternative Policy Scenario 249 Highlights 249 Making the Alternative Policy Scenario a Reality 250 Identifying Policy Priorities 250 Hurdles to Policy Adoption and Implementation 253 Going Beyond the Alternative Policy Scenario 256 Achieving the BAPS Goal 256 Implications for Energy Security 262 Beyond 2030: the Need for a Technology Shift 262 Part C: Focus on Key Topics 267 The Impact of Higher Energy Prices 269 Highlights 269 Introduction 270 Energy Price Trends and Relationships 270 International Prices 270 Final Prices to End Users 275 Quantifying Energy Subsidies 277 Impact of Higher Energy Prices on Demand 282 Energy Demand Trends since Prices Started Rising 282 Responsiveness of Energy Demand to Price Changes 283 Explaining Recent Trends in Energy Demand 289 Price Sensitivity Analysis 295 Macroeconomic Impact of Higher Energy Prices 297 How Higher Energy Prices Affect the Macroeconomy 297 Quantifying the Recent Shift in the Terms of Trade 299 Simulating the Macroeconomic Effects of Higher Energy Prices 301 Explaining Macroeconomic Resilience to Higher Energy Prices 306 Energy Policy Implications 313 Current Trends in Oil and Gas Investment 315 Highlights 315 Overview 316 Exploration and Development 321 Investment Trends 321 Impact of Cost Inflation on Upstream Investment 327 Implications for Oil and Gas Production Capacity 331 Oil Refining 335 Liquefied Natural Gas Facilities 336 Gas-to-Liquids Plants 340 Oil Sands and Extra-Heavy Oil 341 Investment beyond the Current Decade 341 Prospects for Nuclear Power 343 Highlights 343 Current Status of Nuclear Power 344 Renewed Interest in Nuclear Power 344 Nuclear Power Today 346 Historical Development 348 Policy Overview 351 Nuclear Power Generation 351 Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management 356 Proliferation and International Conventions 357 Outlook for Nuclear Power 360 Reference Scenario 361 Alternative Policy Scenario 361 Nuclear Power Economics in Competitive Markets 364 Generating Costs under Different Discount Rate Assumptions 364 Sensitivity Analysis of Nuclear Power Generating Costs 368 Other Factors Influencing the Generating Cost of Nuclear Power 371 Financing Nuclear Power Plants 374 Nuclear Fuel Outlook 376 Demand for Uranium 376 Uranium Resources 377 Uranium Production 380 Uranium Prices and Investment in Exploration and Production 381 Policy Issues 382 The Outlook for Biofuels 385 Highlights 385 Current Status of Biofuels Production and Use 386 Market Overview 386 Ethanol 388 Biodiesel 389 The Environmental Impact of Biofuels 391 Prospects for Biofuels Production and Use 394 Summary of Projections to 2030 394 Regional Trends 400 Key Drivers and Uncertainties 405 Technology and Production Costs 405 Biomass and Land Needs for Biofuels Production 412 International Trade in Biofuels 416 Energy for Cooking in Developing Countries 419 Highlights 419 Household Energy Use in Developing Countries 420 Harmful Effects of Current Cooking Fuels and Technologies 424 Health 424 Environment 427 The Burden of Fuel Collection 428 Outlook for Household Biomass Use in Developing Countries 431 Improving the Way Biomass is Used 433 Modern Cooking Fuels and Stoves 433 Quantifying the Potential Impact of Modern Cooking Fuels and Stoves 435 Policy Implications 440 Focus on Brazil 447 Highlights 447 Overview 448 The Political and Economic Outlook 449 The Political Scene 449 The National Economy 450 Recent Trends and Developments in the Energy Sector 452 Outlook for Energy Demand 454 Reference Scenario 455 Alternative Policy Scenario 462 Outlook for Supply 464 Oil 464 Natural Gas 471 Coal 474 Biomass 474 Power and Heat 479 Environmental Issues 484 Investment 486 ANNEXES 489 Annex A Tables for Reference and Alternative Policy Scenario Projections 491 Annex B Electricity Access 565 Annex C Abbreviations and Definitions 573 Annex D Acronyms 581 Annex E References 585 Paperback 600 pages +PDF for 1 user
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